Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 30/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/2217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 448 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 082
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 082/081/081
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 008/010-020/026-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 15/30/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 45/65/55