Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/0807Z from Region 2014 (S13W91). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 31/1722Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1757Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1629Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (01 Apr, 03 Apr)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 152
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/145
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-020/028-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/25
Minor Storm 05/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/60/30