Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 31/1530Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (02 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 072
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 073/073/071
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 007/008-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/25