Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 31/1926Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/2246Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 067
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/10