Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 30/1941Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2927 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Jul 068

Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 068/068/068

90 Day Mean        30 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    20/15/15