- Status Report
- Jan 29, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds averaged around 330 km/s. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 31/1608Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8563 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (01 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 072
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 075/078/080
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 006/005-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/25/10