Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (03 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 02/1715Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 02/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 02/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 906 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Aug), unsettled to active levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 075
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 015/020-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/35/35
Major-severe storm 55/40/30