Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
31/1114Z from Region 2130 (S07E42). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug,
03 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 348 km/s at
31/1006Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/2044Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/2035Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 156
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 160/160/150
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 006/005-006/008-013/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/30/40