Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 31/0350Z from Region 2940 (N17E61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 31/0950Z. Total IMF reached 6nT at 31/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2816 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Feb), active to major storm levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 130
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 013/015-027/045-012/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/30
Minor Storm 30/40/10
Major-severe storm 15/30/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/15/30
Major-severe storm 70/85/40