Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 329 km/s at 31/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5068 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 073
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 073/073/072
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 013/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/30