Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 31/0933Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 334 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 074
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 074/072/070
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 011/010-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10