Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 January 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
January 31, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 31/2053Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1132Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 069
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  006/006-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.