- Press Release
- Oct 5, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 January 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 31/2053Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1132Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 069
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 006/006-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/15