Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 31/1641Z from Region 2275 (S17W80). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (01 Feb) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (02 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 469 km/s at 31/0807Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2020Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Feb), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M 70/60/50
Class X 25/20/15
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 154
Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 150/145/135
90 Day Mean 31 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 014/018-014/015-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb