Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (03 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 30/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 081
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 081/080/079
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25