Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 30/0346Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1412Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 071
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10