Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 30/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/1005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3751 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 069
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10