Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 31/0648Z from Region 2253 (S06E48). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 660 km/s at 30/2126Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1459Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3631 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 134
Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 31 Dec 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 012/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
