Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 31/0755Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 61000 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 068
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/25