Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 31/2019Z from Region 2585 (N08E71). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 31/0004Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1811Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 10/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 098
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 011/015-009/012-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/05/15