Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 30/1435Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29293 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 073
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 013/015-011/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/05
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 45/10/10