Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 30/0136Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/0559Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 45138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Oct, 02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 068
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 008/008-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/40