Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Oct) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 30/0158Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 893 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 068
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  009/012-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15