Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
October 1, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 30/0236Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1436Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52054 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Oct, 02 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 089
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 089/089/087
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  011/014-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/25

SpaceRef staff editor.