Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Oct) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 849 km/s at 29/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1608Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 74718 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 081
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 022/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 024/030-016/021-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20