Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
September 30, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/1059Z from Region 2422 (S18W55). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at 30/0624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 131
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/130/120
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/008-015/018-015/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/50

SpaceRef staff editor.