Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
30/0444Z from Region 2173 (S14W66). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (01 Oct,
02 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
415 km/s at 30/2047Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/0240Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0244Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 862 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Oct, 02 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Oct) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 65/55/45
Class X 15/10/05
Proton 15/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 162
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/25/20
