Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/2339Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 279 km/s at 30/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0305Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu at 30/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 629 pfu. 

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 99/99/90
PCAF In Progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 105
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/010-017/025-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/45/45