Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/0315Z from Region 2891 (N16E29). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 378 km/s at 30/1951Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/2053Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20 pfu at 29/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 107
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 106/106/104
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 028/044-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/10
Minor Storm 35/10/01
Major-severe storm 35/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/20
Major-severe storm 85/40/15