Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 30/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8657 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Oct, 02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 080
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/30