- Press Release
- Oct 1, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 30/0340Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 30/0902Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20047 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Oct, 01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 070
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10