Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 30/0340Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 30/0902Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20047 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Oct, 01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 070
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10