- Status Report
- Dec 5, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (31 Oct) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 328 km/s at 29/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3668 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 076
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 075/074/073
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 006/005-006/006-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/30