Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 30, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 30/2016Z from Region 2443 (N06E56). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at 30/1826Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2125Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 29/2125Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 121
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.