Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/0135Z from Region 2192 (S15W94). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at
30/0844Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/2003Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 140
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/35
