Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
29/2154Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 30/1704Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/0843Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0713Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
30/0925Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (31 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
two (01 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 25/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 142
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 019/025-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/25/15
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/25/20