Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 30/2055Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 30/1947Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 341 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 090
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 090/088/086
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/008-007/008-011/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/35
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/50