Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 30/2045Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/0718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0718Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 30/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 786 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 109
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/012-011/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/10
Minor Storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/50/10