Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/2338Z from Region 2615 (S08E51). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/0142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1715Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22208 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 084
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10