Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/1706Z from Region 2458 (N09W36). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 581 km/s at 30/0914Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/0804Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 30/0817Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 096
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 019/022-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 35/35/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/10