Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 30/1719Z from Region 2221 (N03E16). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 30/0504Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 440 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 177
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 180/180/180
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 011/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
