Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec,
03 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 526 km/s at
30/2037Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/2057Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/2055Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 131
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 130/130/135
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/008-008/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/25/05