Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 November 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1625 (N14E36, Dao/beta-gamma)
remained the most flare-productive region with frequent low-level
C-class subflares. It showed some intermediate spot decay during the
period, but retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1620
(S13W81, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period: a C5
at 30/1748 UTC as it approached the west limb. No significant changes
were noted in the region, but analysis was hampered due to limb
proximity. No significant changes were noted in Region 1623 (N08E35,
Dao/beta-gamma). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Activity is expected to be low through 03
December with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. At present,
Regions 1620 and 1625 appear to be the most capable of producing
isolated M-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Geomagnetic
field activity was at quiet levels with no sign of the CME passage that
was expected to begin around 30/0000 UTC. Solar winds were low in the
approximate 326 to 363 km/s range. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 01 December with a
slight chance for active levels due to CH HSS effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during 02 – 03 December as
the CH HSS subsides.

III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 20/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 111
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 007/008-004/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 25/10/05