Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/1703Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 30/0532Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 30/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 217 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 070
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05