Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 30/0107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1766 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 May, 01 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 069
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 070/071/072
90 Day Mean 30 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 016/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10