Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/2236Z from Region 1760 (N12E51). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May,
01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 468 km/s at
29/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 35365 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (01 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 104
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 30 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 005/005-011/018-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/30
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/40/40