Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 30/1737Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 30/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/2041Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 29/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 50/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 20/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 151
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 032/058-025/032-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 20/35/05
Major-severe storm 45/25/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 80/70/30
