Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 30/1956Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/1724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/1722Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 527 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 069
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 010/012-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/25