Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/0111Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 793 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 069
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30