Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 30/0804Z from Region 2703 (S08E60). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s at 30/0322Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/1654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14850 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 069
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10