Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/0222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 084
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 009/008-008/010-020/026

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/45/65