Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
March 30, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 30/0152Z from Region 2303 (N18W0*). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at 30/0253Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0126Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

 

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr

Class M    15/25/25

Class X    01/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Mar 134

Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 135/145/150

90 Day Mean        30 Mar 132

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  011/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  005/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  013/015-010/012-010/012

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/25/25

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/15

Major-severe storm    30/30/10

 

SpaceRef staff editor.